Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #24, July 17, 2007.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.disc.wisc.edu/reports/cssrindex.html

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CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.

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NOTE!!!! THERE WILL BE NO CSSRR REPORTS FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, DUE TO STAFF VACATIONS. THIS SERVICE WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 8, 2007. ENJOY THE BREAK.

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To CSSRR-Soc #24

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CSSRR-Index

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Index to this issue:

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND NGO STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS

US

US STATES

NGO AND OTHER COUNTRIES

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OTHER REPORTS, ARTICLES, ETC.

WORKING PAPERS

TABLES OF CONTENTS

DATA

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT STATISTICAL AND NGO PUBLICATIONS

US:

1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reports:

A. "Current Employment Statistics Highlights" (July 2007, .pdf format, 11p.).

http://www.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf

B. "Employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys: summary of recent trends" (July 2007, .pdf format, 16p.).

http://www.bls.gov/web/ces_cps_trends.pdf

2. Office of Management and Budget Report: "Mid-Session Review for FY 2008" (July 2007, .pdf format, 41p.).

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy08/pdf/08msr.pdf

3. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Jul. 10 - Jul. 17, 2007 are available at the site.

http://www.nber.org/releases/

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US States:

Idaho:

Commerce and Labor Periodical: Idaho Employment Newsletter (July 2007, .pdf format, 31p.).

http://cl.idaho.gov/dnn/Default.aspx?tabid=1188

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NGOs and Other Countries

European Commission:

Eurostat Periodical: Statistics in Focus. The latest issues of Statistics in Focus (07/88-07/91, .pdf format) are now available at the SIF website:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=0,1136118&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Issue Brief: "Economic Survey of Austria, 2007," (July 2007, .pdf format, 12p.).

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/8/6/38940498.pdf

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International Monetary Fund Country Reports The latest Country Reports span the time period from Jul. 3 - Jul. 10, 2007 (No. 07/237-07/243).

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/scr1_sp.cfm?s_year=2007&e_year=2007&brtype=default

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Denmark:

Statbank Denmark Updates: "FIKS1: Purchases and sales (year) by industry and amount" (July 2007).

http://www.statbank.dk/FIKS1

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Finland:

Statistics Finland News Releases:

A. "Finns consume eleven times more now than 100 years ago" (Jul 10, 2007).

http://www.stat.fi/tup/suomi90/heinakuu_en.html

B. "Gross domestic product grew by 5 per cent last year" (Jul. 12, 2007).

http://www.stat.fi/til/vtp/2006/vtp_2006_2007-07-12_tie_001_en.html

C. "Tax ratio was declining in 2006" (Jul. 12, 2007).

http://www.stat.fi/til/vermak/2006/vermak_2006_2007-07-12_tie_001_en.html

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Georgia:

Statistics Georgia Report: "External Trade of Georgia, 2006" (July 2007, .pdf format, 138p.). The report is in Georgian and English.

http://www.statistics.ge/publication.php?plang=1&pform=-370

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Iceland:

Statistics Iceland News Releases:

A. "Comparative price levels in Europe in 2006 - eating, drinking and smoking" (86/2007, Jul. 13, 2007).

http://www.statice.is/?PageID=444&NewsID=2734

B. "Catch, value and processing of catch 2006" (83/2007, Jul. 10, 2007).

http://www.statice.is/?PageID=444&NewsID=2616

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India:

Ministry of Statistics and Program Information Reports: Note: MSPI requires free registration before providing reports.

A. "Public Distribution System and Other Sources of Household Consumption, 2004-05" (National Sample Survey Report No. 510, Vol. 1, June 2007, .pdf format, 377p.).

B. "Public Distribution System and Other Sources of Household Consumption, 2004-05" (National Sample Survey Report No. 510, Vol. 2, June 2007, .pdf format, 515p.).

http://mospi.nic.in/mospi_nsso_rept_pubn.htm

Scroll to the report number(s) of interest.

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Japan:

Statistics Bureau Report: "Results of Prompt Tabulation for the 2006 Census: Establishment and Enterprise Census" (July 2007, Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jigyou/2006/sokuhou/index.htm

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Lithuania:

Statistics Department Report: "Survey of the Lithuanian Economy 2007" (June 2007, .pdf format, .zip compressed .pdf format, 125p.).

http://www.stat.gov.lt/en/catalog/list/?cat_y=2&cat_id=1&id=1181

Click on "download" at the bottom of the page for link to full text.

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Netherlands:

Statistics Netherlands Web Magazine Articles, Press Release:

A. "Cycling more popular," by Pieter Vankan (Jul. 10, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/bedrijven/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2211-wm.htm

B. "Entrepreneurial climate in the Netherlands moderately favourable," by Andries Kuipers (Jul. 11, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/macro-economie/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2234-wm.htm

C. "Unemployment among people with foreign background declines marginally" (Jul. 12, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/arbeid-sociale-zekerheid/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-90060-wk.htm

D, "Highest economic growth in the province of Utrecht" (press release, Jul. 10, 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 1p.).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/macro-economie/publicaties/persberichten/archief/2007/2007-051-pb.htm

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Romania: National Institute of Statistics Periodical: Monthly Statistical Bulletin (No. 5, July 2007, .pdf format, 194p.).

http://www.insse.ro/cms/rw/resource/bsl.pdf

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Slovenia:

Statistical Office News Release: "Household Budget Survey, Slovenia, 2005" (Jul. 12, 2007).

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=1007

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UK:

National Statistics Office Periodicals, Reports:

A. Financial Statistics (No. 543, July 2007, .pdf format, 287p.).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=376&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=422

B. Economic & Labour Market Review (July 2007, .pdf format, 72p.).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14692&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=144

C. "Economic Activity Population Pyramids: 1992-2001, 2002-2010 (July 2007).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=8958&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=272

D. "Civil Service Statistics 2006" (July 2007, .pdf format, 58p., with tables in Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=2899&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=422

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OTHER REPORTS, ARTICLES, ETC.

Center for Budget Policy and Priority Reports:

A. "How Robust Is The Current Economic Expansion?" by Aviva Aron-Dine, Chad Stone, and Richard Kogan (June 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 6p.).

http://www.cbpp.org/8-9-05bud.htm

B. "Smaller Deficit Estimate No Surprise: New OMB Estimates Do Not Support Claims About Tax Cuts," by James Horney (July 2007, .pdf format, 7p.).

http://www.cbpp.org/7-11-07bud.htm

More information about CBPP:

http://www.cbpp.org/info.html

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Urban Institute Report, Article:

A. "Reducing the Tax Gap: The Illusion of Pain-Free Deficit Reduction," by Eric Toder (July 2007, .pdf format, 24p.).

http://www.urban.org/publications/411496.html

B. "The Distribution of Federal Taxes," by Jeff Rohaly (Tax Analyst/Tax Facts, July 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 1p.).

http://www.urban.org/publications/1001091.html

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European Central Bank Occasional Paper: "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," by François Coppens, Fernando González and Gerhard Winkler (Occasional Paper No. 65, July 2007, .pdf format, 40p.).

Abstract:

The aims of this paper are twofold: first, we attempt to express the threshold of a single "A" rating as issued by major international rating agencies in terms of annualised probabilities of default. We use data from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s publicly available rating histories to construct confidence intervals for the level of probability of default to be associated with the single "A" rating. The focus on the single "A" rating level is not accidental, as this is the credit quality level at which the Eurosystem considers financial assets to be eligible collateral for its monetary policy operations. The second aim is to review various existing validation models for the probability of default which enable the analyst to check the ability of credit assessment systems to forecast future default events. Within this context the paper proposes a simple mechanism for the comparison of the performance of major rating agencies and that of other credit assessment systems, such as the internal ratings-based systems of commercial banks under the Basel II regime. This is done to provide a simple validation yardstick to help in the monitoring of the performance of the different credit assessment systems participating in the assessment of eligible collateral underlying Eurosystem monetary policy operations. Contrary to the widely used confidence interval approach, our proposal, based on an interpretation of p-values as frequencies, guarantees a convergence to an ex ante fixed probability of default (PD) value. Given the general characteristics of the problem considered, we consider this simple mechanism to also be applicable in other contexts.

http://www.ecb.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp65.pdf

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WORKING PAPERS:

Federal Reserve Banks:

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (Minnesota): "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," by Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha (Working Paper No. 653, July 2007, .pdf and PostScript format, 48p.). Note: Links to links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=1094

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York):

A. "Has the Credit Default Swap Market Lowered the Cost of Corporate Debt?" by Adam B. Ashcraft and João A. C. Santos (Staff Report No. 290, July 2007, .pdf format, 44p.). Note: Links to links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr290.html

B. "Hedge Funds, Financial Intermediation, and Systemic Risk," by John Kambhu, Til Schuermann, and Kevin J. Stiroh (Staff Report No. 291, July 2007, .pdf format, 33p.). Note: Links to links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr291.html

C. "Market Sidedness: Insights into Motives for Trade Initiation," by Asani Sarkar and Robert A. Schwartz (Staff Report No. 292, July 2007, .pdf format, 56p.). Note: Links to links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr292.html

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (California): "Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines," by Gabriel Jiménez, Jose A. Lopez, and Jesús Saurina (Working Paper 2007-14, June 2007, .pdf format, 34p.).

Abstract:

Since bank credit lines are a major source of corporate funding and liquidity, we examine the determinants of credit line usage with a database of Spanish corporate credit lines. A line's default status is the primary factor driving its usage, which increases as a firm approaches default. Several lender characteristics suggest an important role for bank monitoring in firms' usage decisions. Credit line usage is found to be inversely related to macroeconomic conditions. Overall, while several factors influence corporate credit line usage, our analysis suggests that default and supply-side variables are the most important.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2007/wp07-14bk.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri): "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of U.K. Inflation Targeting," by Edward Nelson (Working Paper 2007-026A, July 2007. .pdf format, 50p.). Note: Links to links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2007-026/

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US Department of Treasury: "The Impact of Post-9/11 Visa Policies on Travel to the United States," by Brent Neiman and Phillip Swagel (Working Paper 0701, June 2007, .pdf format, 45p.).

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of post-9/11 changes in visa and security policy on business and leisure travel to the United States. American businesses, tourism industry representatives, and politicians pointed to changes in visa policies as being responsible for a sharp decline in short-term visitors following the September 11 attacks. Several foreign governments likewise complained that visa requirements and other security measures were making it difficult for their citizens to travel to the United States. Using an empirical model which distinguishes the impact of visa policy from economic and country-specific factors, we find that changes in visa policy in the aftermath of 9/11 were not important contributors to the decrease in travel to the United States. Rather, the reduction in entries was largest among travelers who were not required to obtain a visa.

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/economic-policy/papers/rp0701.pdf

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National Bureau of Economic Research: NBER has released the following working papers for the week of Jul. 2 - Jul. 9, 2007:

http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest

New papers are: 13246-13264

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Asian Development Bank: "Defining and Measuring Inclusive Growth: Application to the Philippines," by Ifzal Ali and Hyun H. Son (Working Paper No. 98, July 2007, .pdf format, 23p.).

Abstract:

This study proposes an approach to defining and measuring inclusive growth using a new methodology to capture inclusive growth. In this context, the paper introduces the idea of a social opportunity function that is similar to a social welfare function. In this study, growth is defined as inclusive if it increases the social opportunity function, which depends on two factors: (i) average opportunities available to the population, and (ii) how opportunities are shared among the population. This idea is made operational by means of the opportunity curve, which has a one-to-one relationship with the social opportunity function. To complement the shortcoming of the opportunity curve particularly partial ranking, the study also develops the opportunity index to provide a complete ranking. The proposed methodologies are applied to the Philippines using its micro unit record household survey. Empirical applications analyze access to and equity of such opportunities as employment (total and also by gender); education; health; and basic infrastructure such as electricity, clean drinking water, and sanitation.

http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/WP098.pdf

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European Central Bank: The ECB has added several working papers in the last week. Papers (.pdf format) can be found at:

http://www.ecb.eu/pub/scientific/wps/date/html/wpsall.en.html

New papers are 773-775.

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International Monetary Fund: IMF has recently added new working papers. The papers are Nos. 150-169.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/wp1_sp.cfm?s_year=2007&e_year=2007&brtype=default

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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

http://www.iza.org/index_html?lang=en&mainframe=http%3A//www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/index_html%3Fyear%3D2007&topSelect=publications&subSelect=papers

The new working papers are: 2921-2930.

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Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

http://www.cesifo.de/wp

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2007.

The new papers are numbered 2050-2054.

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New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers (Jul. 7 and Jul. 13, 2007) is available at:

http://ideas.repec.org/n/nep-all/

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AgEcon Search: This week's new working papers from AgEcon Search at the University of Minnesota are available at:

http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/new.pl

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Economics Letters (Vol. 96, No. 3, August 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01651765

Games and Economic Behavior (Vol. 60, No. 2, August 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/08998256

Industrial & Labor Relations Review (Vol. 60, No. 4, July 2007). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/ilrreview/currentIssue.html

Journal of Urban Economics (Vol. 62, No. 1, July 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00941190

Journal of Mathematical Economics (Vol. 43, No. 7/8, September 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03044068

Management Science (Vol. 53, No. 7, July 2007).

http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/vol53/issue7/index.dtl

Review of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 89, No. 3, August 2007). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

http://www.mitpressjournals.org/toc/rest/89/3?cookieSet=1

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DATA:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Archival Federal Reserve Economic Data Update: "Over 11,000 data series have been added to the regional data category, including labor force and unemployment rate time series for every state, county, and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the United States. Data is available in .zip compressed Microsoft Excel and comma separated value format.

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/category?cid=3008

FRED now also offers GeoFred, "a web application that allows users to create thematic maps of U.S. economic data for geographies including states, counties, and metropolitan statistical areas. Maps can be created from over 12,000 regional data series available in the FRED database. Regional data series include civilian labor force, residential population, and unemployment rate. Various tools allow users to customize and print these maps.

http://geofred.stlouisfed.org/

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US Department of Housing and Urban Development "FY 2008 Proposed Fair Market Rents." (July 2007, Microsoft Word, HTML, Microsoft Word, or Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.huduser.org/datasets/fmr.html

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US Department of Agriculture:"Livestock and Meat Trade" (July 2007, Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/MeatTrade/

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