Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #22, July 3, 2007.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.disc.wisc.edu/reports/cssrindex.html

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CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.

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To CSSRR-Soc #22

To CSSRR-Health #22

CSSRR-Index

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Index to this issue:

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND NGO STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS

US

US STATES

NGO AND OTHER COUNTRIES

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OTHER REPORTS, ARTICLES, ETC.

WORKING PAPERS

TABLES OF CONTENTS

LEGISLATION INFORMATION UPDATES

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT STATISTICAL AND NGO PUBLICATIONS

US:

1, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Report: "Food Security Assessment, 2006," by Birgit Meade, Stacey Rosen, and Shahla Shapouri (Outlook Report No. GFA-18, June 2007, .pdf format, 49p., with Microsoft Excel tables.).

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/GFA18/

2. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Jun. 26-Jul. 3, 2007 are available at the site.

http://www.nber.org/releases/

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US States:

Alaska:

Labor and Workforce Development Periodical: Alaska Economic Trends (June 2007, .pdf format). The lead article in this month's issue is "The Matanuska-Susitna Borough," by Neal Fried,

http://labor.state.ak.us/trends/

Maine:

State Planning Office Report: "Place and Prosperity," by Catherine J. Reilly and Henry Renski (Report for the Governor’s Council on Maine’s Quality of Place, June 2007, .pdf format, 47p.).

http://www.maine.gov/spo/economics/docs/origpdf/pdf/Final_QOP_paper.pdf

North Dakota:

State Data Center Periodical: Economic Brief (Vol. 16, No. 6, June 2007, .pdf format, 3p.). The topic of this month's brief is: " Net Taxable Income Flow Due to Migration for North Dakota: 1993 to 2006."

http://www.ndsu.nodak.edu/sdc/publications/ebriefs/EB16_6Press.pdf

Ohio:

Office of Workforce Development Report: "Ohio Economic Analysis, 2007: Understanding the Environment and Charting a Course for the Future" (June 2007, .pdf format, 42p.).

http://lmi.state.oh.us/Research/2007OhioEconomicAnalysis.pdf

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NGOs and Other Countries:

European Commission:

Eurostat Report, Periodical:

A. "Taxation trends in the European Union - Data for the EU Member States and Norway" (June 2007, .pdf format, 447p.).

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1073,46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-DU-07-001

B. Statistics in Focus The latest issues of Statistics in Focus (07/73-07/84, .pdf format) are now available at the SIF website:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=0,1136118&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

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Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Issue Brief: "Economic Survey of France, 2007," (June 2007, .pdf format, 12p.).

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/61/43/38840164.pdf

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International Monetary Fund Country Reports The latest Country Reports span the time period from Jun. 29-Jul. 3, 2007 (No. 07/221-07/231).

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/scr1_sp.cfm?s_year=2007&e_year=2007&brtype=default

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Ireland:

Central Statistics Office Report: "Output, Input and Income in Agriculture, 2006 - Final Estimate (June 2007, .pdf format, 8p.).

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/agriculture/current/oiifin.pdf

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Israel:

Central Bureau of Statistics Report: "Seasonal And Prior Adjustment Factors For 2007: Trends For 2003-2007" (June 2007, .pdf format).

http://www.cbs.gov.il/publications/tseries/seasonal07/presentatione07.pdf

Click on the menu items for links to other .pdfs relevant to the topics.

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Jersey:

States of Jersey Report: "Jersey Energy Trends 2006" (June 2007, .pdf format, 18p., with data in Microsoft Excel format)..

http://www.gov.je/Statistics/News/JerseyEnergyTrends2006.htm

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Malta:

National Statistics Office News Releases:

A. "Expenditure on R & D in the General Government Sector: 2004-2006" (Jun. 27, 2007, .pdf format, 7p.).

http://www.nso.gov.mt/statdoc/document_view.aspx?id=1970&backUrl=news_by_date.aspx%3fretainCriteria%3dtrue

B. "Non-Financial Accounts for General Government sector: 2000-2003" (Jun. 26, 2007, .pdf format, 6p.).

http://www.nso.gov.mt/statdoc/document_view.aspx?id=1969&backUrl=news_by_date.aspx%3fretainCriteria%3dtrue

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Netherlands:

Statistics Netherlands Web Magazine Articles:

A. "More young people work short hours," by Saskia te Riele and Ingrid Beckers (Jun. 19, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/arbeid-sociale-zekerheid/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2213-wm.htm

B. "Goods manufacturers delay economic recovery," by Nico van Stokrom and Wim Tebbens (Jun. 21, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/macro-economie/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2223-wm.htm

C. "House value marginally up in 2007," by Cees Steijn (Jun. 28, 2007).

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/bouwen-wonen/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2222-wm.htm

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Poland:

Central Statistical Office Report: "Foreign trade turnover in total and by countries. January - December 2006 (final data)" (June 2007, HMTL and .pdf format, 2p.).

http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/45_970_ENG_HTML.htm

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Scotland:

Scottish Executive Report: "Annual Population Survey in Scotland: A Compendium of Labour Market Statistics 2006" (June 2007, .HTML and pdf format, 47p., with tables in Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/06/26165000/0

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Slovenia:

Statistical Office News Releases:

A. "Annual non-financial sector accounts, Slovenia, 2000-2005" (Jun. 29, 2007).

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=981

B. "Main aggregates of the general government, Slovenia, 1995-1999, 2006" (Jun. 29, 2007).

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=988

C. "Government budget appropriations or outlays on r&d (gbaord), Slovenia, 2006 -- provisional data" (Jun. 29, 2007).

http://www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=991

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Sri Lanka:

Department of Census and Statistics Report: "Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Annual Report with District and Provincial Data -2006" (June 2007, .pdf format, 80p.).

http://www.statistics.gov.lk/samplesurvey/2006-annual1%20reduce%20file%20size.pdf

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UK:

1. National Statistics Office Report, Periodical:

A. "Economic activity population pyramid 2002-2010" (June 2007).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=8958&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=272

B. Financial Statistics, edited by Natu Somabhai Patel (No. 542, June 2007, .pdf format, 287p.).

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=376&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=422

2. Department of Work and Pensions Report: "The Abstract of Statistics for Benefits, National Insurance Contributions, and Indices of Prices and Earnings : 2006 Edition," (June 2007, .pdf format, 91p.).

http://www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/abstract/Abstract2006.pdf

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OTHER REPORTS, ARTICLES, ETC.

Brookings Institution Reports:

A. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," by Karen E. Dynan, Douglas W. Elmendorf, and Daniel E. Sichel (June 2007, .pdf format, 46p.).

http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/elmendorf200706.htm

B. "The Effects of Broadband Deployment on Output and Employment: A Cross-sectional Analysis of U.S. Data," by Robert W. Crandall, William Lehr, and Robert E. Litan (June 2007, .pdf format, 20p.).

http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/crandall/200706litan.htm

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Urban Institute Report: "Encouraging Homeownership Through the Tax Code," by William G. Gale, Jonathan Gruber, and Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. (June 2007, .pdf format, 17p.)

http://www.urban.org/publications/1001084.html

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Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Science Article: "Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment," by Kenneth G. Manton, Gene R. Lowrimore, Arthur D. Ullian, XiLiang Gu, and H. Dennis Tolley (Vol. 104, No. 26, June 26, 2007, HTML and .pdf format, p. 10802-10807). This article is available free of charge.

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/104/26/10802

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WORKING PAPERS:

Federal Reserve Banks:

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (Massachusetts): "How Strong is the Case for Downward Real Wage Rigidity?" by Steinar Holden and Fredrik Wulfsberg (Working Paper 07-6, June 2007, .pdf format, 42p.). Note: Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2007/wp0706.htm

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Ohio):

A. "On the Cyclicality of R&D: Disaggregated Evidence," by Min Ouyang (WP No. 07-07, June 2007, .pdf format, 13p.).

Abstract:

"This paper explores the link between short-run cycles and long-run growth by examining the cyclical properties of R&D at the disaggregated industry level. The relationship between R&D and output is estimated using an annual panel of 20 U.S. manufacturing industries from 1958 to 1998. The results indicate that R&D is in fact procyclical; but interestingly, estimates using demand-shift instruments suggest that it responds asymmetrically to demand shocks. We discuss the possibilities that liquidity constraints and technology improvement cause the observed procyclicality of R&D."

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2007/wp0707.pdf

B. "Liquidity in Asset Markets with Search Frictions," by Ricardo Lagos and Guillaume Rocheteau (WP No. 07-06, June 2007, .pdf format, 28p.).

Abstract:

"We study how trading frictions in asset markets affect the distribution of asset holdings, asset prices, efficiency, and standard measures of liquidity. To this end, we analyze the equilibrium and optimal allocations of a search-theoretic model of financial intermediation similar to Duffie, Gârleanu and Pedersen (2005). In contrast with the existing literature, the model we develop imposes no restrictions on asset holdings, so traders can accommodate frictions by varying their trading needs through changes in their asset positions. We find that this is a critical aspect of investor behavior in illiquid markets. A reduction in trading frictions leads to an increase in the dispersion of asset holdings and trade volume. Transaction costs and intermediaries’ incentives to make markets are nonmonotonic in trade frictions. With the entry of dealers, these nonmonotonicities give rise to an externality in liquidity provision that can lead to multiple equilibria. Tight spreads are correlated with large volume and short trading delays across equilibria. From a normative standpoint we show that the asset allocation across investors and the number of dealers are socially inefficient."

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2007/wp0706.pdf

C. "Inflation Expectations, Real Interest Rate and Risk Premiums - Evidence from Bond Market and Consumer Survey Data," by Dong Fu (WP No. 0705, June 2007, .pdf format, 27p.).

"This paper extracts information on inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and various risk premiums by exploring the underlying common factors among the actual inflation, University of Michigan consumer survey inflation forecast, yields on U.S. nominal Treasury bonds, and particularly, yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Our findings suggest that a significant liquidity risk premium on TIPS exists, which leads to inflation expectations that are generally higher than the inflation compensation measure at the 10-year horizon. On the other hand, the estimated expected inflation is mostly lower than the consumer survey inflation forecast at the 12-month horizon. Survey participants slowly adjust their inflation forecasts in response to inflation changes. The nominal interest rate adjustment lags inflation movements too. Our model also edges out a parsimonious seasonal AR(2) time series model in the one-step-ahead forecast of inflation."

http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2007/wp0705.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Texas):

A. "Pricing-to-Market with State-Dependent Pricing," by Anthony Landry (Working Paper No. 0706, June 2007, .pdf format, 33p.).

Abstract:

In an attempt to capture the incomplete pass-through of exchange rate movements, the open economy macroeconomic literature with nominal rigidities has recently concentrated on market segmentation for tradable goods or so-called pricing-to-market models. This paper studies the implications that such pricing structure has for the dynamics of real and nominal economic activity within a simple open economy macroeconomic model which embodies elements of state-dependent pricing and strategic complementarity. In contrast to its time-dependent variants, a domestic monetary shock spills over to foreign consumption as movements in the distributions of price-setters influence foreign aggregate prices.

http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2007/wp0706.pdf

B. "Inflation Expectations, Real Interest Rate and Risk Premiums-Evidence from Bond Market and Consumer Survey Data," by Dong Fu (Working Paper No. 0706, June 2007, .pdf format, 40p.).

Abstract:

This paper extracts information on inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and various risk premiums by exploring the underlying common factors among the actual inflation, University of Michigan consumer survey inflation forecast, yields on U.S. nominal Treasury bonds, and particularly, yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Our findings suggest that a significant liquidity risk premium on TIPS exists, which leads to inflation expectations that are generally higher than the inflation compensation measure at the 10-year horizon. On the other hand, the estimated expected inflation is mostly lower than the consumer survey inflation forecast at the 12-month horizon. Survey participants slowly adjust their inflation forecasts in response to inflation changes. The nominal interest rate adjustment lags inflation movements, too. Our model also edges out a parsimonious seasonal AR(2) time series model in the one-step-ahead forecast of inflation.

http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2007/wp0705.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: "Generalized Canonical Regression," by Arturo Estrella (Staff Report No. 288, June 2007, .pdf format, 31p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr288.html

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Virginia): "A Literature Review on the Effectiveness of Financial Education," by Matthew Martin (Working Paper 07-3, June 2007, .pdf format, 26p.). Note: There is no extract for this paper.

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/economic_research/working_papers/pdfs/wp07-3.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri): "Monetary Policy and Natural Disasters in a DSGE Model: How Should the Fed Have Responded to Hurricane Katrina?" by Benjamin D. Keen, and Michael R. Pakko (Working Paper 2007-025A, June 2007, .pdf format, 33p.). Note: Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2007-025/

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National Bureau of Economic Research: NBER has released the following working papers for the week of Jun. 18-25, 2007:

http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest

New papers are: 13178-13208.

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International Monetary Fund: IMF has recently added new working papers. The papers are Nos. 142-146.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/wp1_sp.cfm?s_year=2007&e_year=2007&brtype=default

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Asian Development Bank:

A. "Can East Asia Weather a US Slowdown?" by Cyn-Young Park. (No. 95, June 2007, .pdf format, 10p.).

Abstract:

"The expected slowdown in the economy of the United States (US) has ignited increasing concerns over the short-term growth prospect of East Asia. Historically, a US slowdown has often been associated with a global slowdown. East Asia has been particularly vulnerable to slowing US growth, given its relatively high export reliance on the US market. During the last slump in 2001-2002, a drop in US imports immediately translated into falling exports, cuts in industrial production, and declining growth rates in East Asia. Using the Oxford Economics’ Global Model, this paper examines the possible impacts on East Asia of a sharper and longer US slowdown than is currently anticipated by the Asian Development Bank in its Asian Development Outlook 2007. The results of the simulation exercises suggest that the impact of a US slowdown on its own would not significantly impact growth in East Asia. However, if a US slowdown instigates disorderly adjustments in international financial markets and spills over into the People’s Republic of China, the remainder of East Asia would not be spared."

http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/WP095.pdf

A. "Interrelationship between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: The Asian Experience," by Hyun H. Son. (No. 96, June 2007, .pdf format, 12p.)

Abstract:

This paper examines the relationships between economic growth, income distribution, and poverty for 17 Asian countries for the period 1981-2001. First, it investigates how much growth is required to offset the adverse effect of an increase in inequality on poverty. This trade-off between inequality and growth is quantified using a tool called the "inequality-growth trade-off index." The trade-off index measures how much growth in mean income or expenditure will be required to offset a 1% increase in inequality, with poverty remaining unchanged. Second, the paper looks into the issue of pro-poor growth. How to generate pro-poor growth is a critical challenge for policymakers concerned with sustainable poverty reduction in developing countries. Pro-poor growth is defined as growth that benefits the poor proportionally more than the nonpoor. By using a measure called the "poverty equivalent growth rate", the paper examines both (i) how growth in mean income (or expenditure) has fared in Asia; and (ii) how the benefits of growth are distributed between the poor and the nonpoor.

http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/WP096.pdf

C. "Inclusive Growth toward a Prosperous Asia: Policy Implications," by Ifzal Ali and Juzhong Zhuang (Working Paper No. 97, July 2007, .pdf format, 33p.).

Abstract:

Developing Asia is embracing inclusive growth as a key development goal in response to rising inequalities and increasing concern that these could undermine the very sustainability of Asia’s growth. This paper argues that inclusive growth emphasizes creation of and equal access to opportunities; and that unequal opportunities arise from social exclusion associated with market, institutional, and policy failures. A development strategy anchored on inclusive growth is outlined, consisting of two mutually reinforcing strategic pillars of high and sustainable growth to create economic opportunities, and social inclusion to ensure equal access to opportunities. This will enable developing Asia to accomplish the agenda of eradicating extreme poverty and, at the same time, address the development challenge brought about by rising inequalities. It is argued that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) should respond to the emerging needs of developing Asia by adopting inclusive growth as its overarching goal. This goal, if adopted, will require ADB to modify its corporate strategy, including its vision, mission, strategic pillars, and core operational priorities. Implications for ADB’s country and regional operations are discussed.

http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/WP097.pdf

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European Central Bank: The ECB has added several working papers in the last week. Papers (.pdf format) can be found at:

http://www.ecb.eu/pub/scientific/wps/date/html/wpsall.en.html

New papers are 768-772.

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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

http://www.iza.org/index_html?lang=en&mainframe=http%3A//www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/index_html%3Fyear%3D2007&topSelect=publications&subSelect=papers

The new working papers are: 2889-2899

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Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

http://www.cesifo.de/wp

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2007.

The new papers are numbered 2030-2038

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New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers (Jun. 23, 2007) is available at:

http://ideas.repec.org/n/nep-all/

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AgEcon Search: This week's new working papers from AgEcon Search at the University of Minnesota are available at:

http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/new.pl

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 31, No. 8, August 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01651889

Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 135, No. 1, July 2007).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00220531

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, Vol. 170, Part 3, 2007; Series B: Vol. 69, Part 3, 2007; Series C: Vol. 56, Part 3, 2007. All tables of contents are available at:

http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1805

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LEGISLATION INFORMATION UPDATES:

US Senate Committee on Finance Hearing Testimony: "The Stealth Tax that’s No Longer a Wealth Tax: How to Stop the AMT from Sneaking Up on Unsuspecting Taxpayers," a hearing held June 27, 2007.

http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/hearing062707.htm

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