Current Demographic Research Report #96, August 16, 2005.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.disc.wisc.edu/reports/CDERR/subscribe.html

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CDERR is compiled and edited by John Carlson, Charlie Fiss, and Jack Solock of the University of Wisconsin Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services Center.
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Index to this issue:

REPORTS, ARTICLES, COMPENDIUMS

Census Bureau News Release
_MMWR_ Quickstats
SAMHSA Reports
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Report
US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Report
National Science Info Brief
_Demographic Research_ Article
Commonwealth Fund Issue Brief
Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program Reprint
Springer Book
Australian Government Institute of Health and Welfare Report
Statistics South Africa Report
PSID/CSD Bibliography Update
_Science_ Article Abstract
Info for Health Pop. Reporter

WORKING PAPERS

University of Michigan Population Studies Center
California Center for Population Research (CCPR)
University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty
National Bureau of Economic Research
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
World Bank Policy Research Programme
Population Council
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

TABLES OF CONTENTS

Ingenta
Other Journals

CONFERENCES/CALLS FOR PAPERS

National Center for Education Statistics

DATA

Census Bureau
Urban Institute Report

WEBSITES OF INTEREST

kaiserEDU.org Update

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REPORTS, ARTICLES, NEWS RELEASES, ETC:

Census Bureau News Release, Report, Facts for Features:

A. "Texas Becomes Nation's Newest "Majority-Minority" State,Census Bureau Announces" (CB05-118, Aug. 11, 2005, HTML format with links to two tables (Microsoft Excel format).

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/005514.html

B. "We the People: Pacific Islanders in the United States," by Philip M. Harris and Nicholas A. Jones (Census 2000 Special Report CENSR-26, .pdf format 20p.).

http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/censr-26.pdf

C. "Back to School" (Facts for Features CB05-FF.11-2 (Rev.), Aug 15, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 5p.).

HTML:

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/005225.html

.pdf:

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2005/cb05ff11-2.pdf
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_MMWR_ Quickstats: "Percentage of Never-Married Teens Aged 15--19 Years Who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse, by Sex and by Age Group --- United States, 1995 and 2002" (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 30, Aug. 5, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 751).

HTML:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5430a7.htm

.pdf:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5430.pdf
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SAMHSA Reports:

A. "Sub State Estimates of Substance Use by Age" (Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Office of Applied Statistics, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), August 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 120p., data taken from 1999, 2000, and 2001 NASDUH).).

http://oas.samhsa.gov/SubStateTABS/agetoc.htm

B. "Sub State Substance Use Data" (Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Office of Applied Statistics, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), August 2005, HTML and .pdf format, data taken from 1999, 2000, and 2001 NASDUH).

http://oas.samhsa.gov/subStateTABS/toc.htm

C. "Cocaine Use: 2002 and 2003" (Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Office of Applied Statistics, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) NSDUH Report, August 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 3p.).

http://oas.samhsa.gov/2k5/cocaine/cocaine.cfm
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National Center for Education Statistics Report:

A."First Generation Students in Postsecondary Education: A Look at their College Transcripts," by Xianglei Chen (NCES 2005171, July 2005, .pdf format, 83p.).

Abstract:

This report uses data from the Postsecondary Education Transcript Study (PETS) of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) to examine the majors and coursetaking patterns of students who are the first members of their families to attend college (referred to as "first-generation students" in this report) and compare their postsecondary experiences and outcomes with those of students whose parents attended or completed college. The results indicate that first-generation students were at a disadvantage in terms of their access to, persistence through, and completion of postsecondary education. Once in college, their relative disadvantage continued with respect to coursetaking and academic performance. First-generation status was significantly and negatively associated with lower bachelor's degree completion rates even after controlling for a wide range of interrelated factors, including students' demographic backgrounds, academic preparation, enrollment characteristics, postsecondary coursetaking, and academic performance. This report also demonstrates that more credits and higher grades in the first year and fewer withdrawn or repeated courses were strongly related to the chances of students (regardless of generation status) persisting in postsecondary education and earning a bachelor's degree.

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2005171

B."American Indian and Alaska Native Children: Findings From the Base Year of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B)," by Kristin Denton Flanagan and Jennifer Park (NCES 2005116, August 2005, .pdf format, 73 p.).

Abstract:

This E.D. TAB provides descriptive information about American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) children born in the United States in 2001. It presents information on characteristics of their families, on children's mental and physical skills, on children's first experiences in childcare, on the fathers of these children, and on their prenatal care. The report profiles data from a nationally representative sample of children at about 9 months of age both overall, and for various subgroups (i.e., male and female, AIAN children living in different types of families, AIAN children living in poverty). This report tells us that about one-third of AIAN children live in poverty (34 percent), about one-third live in households where the mother has less than a high school education (34 percent); three-quarters live in households with two parents, and about 1 in 10 (11 percent) were born to teen-aged mothers. Nonetheless, AIAN children at about 9 months of age do not perform significantly differently from the general population of children in terms of early mental and physical skills, such as exploring objects in play, babbling, eye-hand coordination and pre-walking skills.

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2005116

C. "Characteristics of the 100 Largest Public Elementary and Secondary School Districts in the United States: 2002-03," by Jennifer Sable and Lee M. Hoffman (NCES 2005312, August, 2005, .pdf format, 76p.).

Abstract:

The report presents information drawn from the Common Core of Data (CCD) Local Education Agency Universe survey about the 1 percent of the Nation's school districts that serve 23 percent of all public school students. It includes information about the numbers of dropouts and high school completers, student participation in selected programs, the numbers of teachers, and revenues and expenditures in these districts. Although the 100 largest school districts are large by definition, they differ in many characteristics. The size ranges from more than 1 million students in New York Public Schools to about 46 thousand in Cherry Creek, Colorado. Current expenditures ranged from $3,563 per pupil in Puerto Rico to $14,012 in Boston.

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2005312
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, Periodical, News Releases:

A. "Employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys: summary of recent trends" (August 2005, .pdf format 17p.).

http://www.bls.gov/cps/ces_cps_trends.pdf

B. _Monthly Labor Review_ (Vol. 128, No. 7, July 2005, .pdf format).

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _MLR_ is released this one, along with all others back to 1982, will be available at:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/indentry.htm

C. "Computer and Internet Use at Work Summary: 2003" (Aug. 2, 2005, ASCII text, HTML, and .pdf format, 13p.).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ciuaw.toc.htm

D. "Recent and Planned Changes to the Current Employment Statistics Survey" (Aug. 5, 2005).

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesww.htm
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US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Report:

"Recreation, Tourism, and Rural Well-Being," by Richard J. Reeder and Dennis M. Brown (Economic Research Report No. ERR7, August 2005, .pdf format, 38p.).

Abstract:

The promotion of recreation and tourism has been both praised and criticized as a rural development strategy. This study uses regression analysis to assess the effect of recreation and tourism development on socioeconomic conditions in rural recreation counties. The findings imply that recreation and tourism development contributes to rural well-being, increasing local employment, wage levels, and income, reducing poverty, and improving education and health. But recreation and tourism development is not without drawbacks, including higher housing costs. Local effects also vary significantly, depending on the type of recreation area.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ERR7/
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National Science Foundation Info Brief: "Graduate Enrollment in Science and Engineering Programs Up in 2003, but Declines for First-Time Foreign Students,"by Julia Oliver (NSF 05-317, August 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 5p.).

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf05317/
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_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is " a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Rostock, Germany)." "Do socioeconomic mortality differences decrease with rising age?" by Rasmus Hoffmann (Vol. 13, Article 2, .pdf format, p. 35-62).

Abstract:

The impact of SES on mortality is an established finding in mortality research. I examine, whether this impact decreases with age. Most research finds evidence for this decrease but it is unknown whether the decline is due to mortality selection. My data come from the US-HRS Study and includes 9376 persons aged 59+, which are followed over 8 years. The variables allow a time varying measurement of SES, health and behavior. Event-history-analysis is applied to analyze mortality differentials. My results show that socioeconomic mortality differences are stable across ages whereas they decline clearly with decreasing health. The first finding that health rather than age is the equalizer combined with the second finding of unequally distributed health leads to the conclusion that in old age, the impact of SES is transferred to health and is stable across ages.

http://www.demographic-research.org/

Click on "Enter".
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Commonwealth Fund Issue Brief: "Seeing Red: Americans Driven into Debt by Medical Bills," by Michelle M. Doty, Jennifer N. Edwards, and Alyssa L. Holmgren (August 2005, .pdf format, 11p.).

http://www.cmwf.org/publications/publications_show.htm?doc_id=290074
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Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program Reprint: "Unraveling the SES-Health Connection," by James P. Smith (RP-1170, 2005, .pdf format, 28p.).

Abstract:

People of lower socio-economic status (SES) appear to always have much worse health outcomes. At least until the end of life, at each age every movement down in income is associated with being in poorer health. While a debate rages on about competing reasons why SES may affect health, there is little recognition that the so-called reverse causation from health to economic status may be pretty fundamental as well. Even if the direction of causation is that SES mainly affects health, what dimensions of SES actually matter--the financial aspects such as income or wealth or non-financial dimensions like education? Finally, is there a life course component to the health gradient so that we may be mislead in trying to answer these questions by only looking at people of a certain age-- say those past 50. This paper, which is divided into four sections, provides my answers to these questions. The first section examines the issue of reverse causation or whether a new health event has a significant impact on four dimensions of SES-out-of-pocket medical expenses, labor supply, household income, and household wealth. The next section switches the perspective by asking whether the so-called direct causation from SES to health really matters all that much. If the answer is yes and it will be, a sub-theme in this section concerns which dimensions of SES- income, wealth, or education-matter for individual health. Since the answer to that question turns out to be education, Section 3 deals with the very much more difficult issue of why education matters so much. The evidence in these first three sections relies on data for people above age 50. In the final section of the paper, I test the robustness of my answers to these basic questions of the meaning of the SES-health gradient using data that span the entire life-course.

http://www.rand.org/publications/RP/RP1170/
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Springer Book: _Handbook of Population_, edited by Dudley L. Poston and Michael Michlin (ISBN 0-306-47768-8, approx. 915 p., forthcoming). For more information, including ordering information see:

http://www.springeronline.com/sgw/cda/frontpage/0,0,4-0-22-35321165-0,0.html
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Australian Government Institute of Health and Welfare Report: "Disability Support Services: 2003-04" (August 2005, .pdf format, 138p.). "This report presents data on services provided or funded by governments under the CSTDA (Commonwealth State/Territory Disability Agreement), and the people accessing these services between 1 July 2003 and 30 June 2004. The report presents a range of data relating to service users, their characteristics, their informal carers, and patterns of service usage. In addition, there is information on the service outlets providing disability support services nationwide during 2003-2004."

http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/10155
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Statistics South Africa Report: "Marriages and Divorces 2003" (P0307, April 2005, .pdf format, 31p.).

http://www.statssa.gov.za/Publications/P0307/P03072003.pdf
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Panel Study of Income Dynamics/Child Development Supplement Bibliography Updates: The following items have been added to the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research PSID/CDS: For all items see:

http://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/Publications/Bibliography/BrowseKeywordsQ.aspx?ID=5

Careiro, Pedro; Heckman, James J., and Masterov, Dimitriy V. (University College London// University of Chicago// University of Chicago). Labor Market Discrimination and Racial Differences in Premarket Factors. The Journal of Law and Economics. 2005; XLVIII.

Davis-Kean, Pamela (University of Michigan). The Influence of Parent Education and Family Income on Child Achievement: The Indirect Role of Parental Expectations and the Home Environment. Journal of Family Psychology. 2005; 19(2):294-304.

Vandewater, E. A.; Bickham, D. S., and Lee, J. H. Time Well Spent? Relating Television Use to Children's Free-Time Activities. Pediatrics. 2005 (in press).
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_Science_ Article Abstract: "Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source," by Ira M. Longini, Jr., Azhar Nizam, Shufu Xu, Kumnuan Ungchusak, Wanna Hanshaoworakul, Derek A. T. Cummings, and M. Elizabeth Halloran (_Science_, Vol. 309, No. 5737, August 12, 2005, p. 1083-1087).

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/309/5737/1083
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Info for Health Pop. Reporter: Info for Health Pop. Reporter: Info for Health Pop. Reporter: Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (vol. 5, no. 33, Aug. 15, 2005). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

http://www.infoforhealth.org/popreporter/
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NLS Bibliography Updates: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

http://www.nlsbibliography.org/

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Jun. 6 - Aug 12, 2005.

For more information on any of these citations (selected abstracts are available) go to the above listed address and click on "Title List". Click on the first item, which will give the syntax of the citation URLs:

http://www.nlsbibliography.org/qtitle.php3?myrow[0]=320

Then change the number after the equal sign (320 in this case) to the number listed as the "ID Number" in the citations below. You will be taken to the full citation listing.

CAPUTO, RICHARD K.
Inheritance and Intergenerational Transmission of Parental Care
Marriage and Family Review 37,1/2 (2005): 107-127. Also: In: Challenges of
Aging on U.S. Families: Policy and Practice Implications, R.K. Caputo. The
Haworth Press, Inc., 2005
Cohort(s): Young Women
ID Number: 5002
Publisher: Haworth Press, Inc.

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WORKING PAPERS:

University of Michigan Population Studies Center: "The U.S. Social Safety Net and Poverty: Lessons Learned and Promising Approaches," by Sheldon H. Danziger and Sandra K. Danziger (PSC Research Report 580, August 2005, .pdf format, 19p.).

Abstract:

President Lyndon Johnson declared War on Poverty in 1964 with the goal of eliminating income poverty. Although his key economic advisors expected this goal to be achieved by 1980, progress against poverty slowed dramatically after the early 1970s. The official poverty rate in the U.S. was about the same in 2003, 12.5 percent of all persons, as it had been 30 years earlier. In this chapter, we reflect on the rise and fall of antipoverty policy as a national priority, highlighting key changes in welfare policies for families with children over the past four decades.

Antipoverty programs reduce market-generated poverty to a greater extent today than they did when the War on Poverty was launched. However, most of the increase in the antipoverty effect of the social safety net is due to programs and policies that were enacted and/or expanded in one decade, 1965 to 1975. The main exception is the Earned Income Tax Credit that grew into the most effective antipoverty policy for families with children by the mid-1990s.

Today, only the elderly have an extensive social safety net that protects them from the fluctuations of the business cycle and the secular economic changes that have led to declining real wages for many workers and high poverty rates for families with children. For the nonelderly, U.S. antipoverty programs are no more effective now than they were 25 years ago, and they are much less-effective than those in other advanced industrialized economies.

Since 1980, there has been relatively little political or public interest in launching a major antipoverty initiative in the U.S. However, the lessons learned from the U.S. experience were influential in Prime Minister Blair's 1999 declaration of "war on child poverty" in the United Kingdom. We conclude by offering some thoughts on the implications of the U.S. experience for the choices of antipoverty policies in Mexico.

http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/abs.html?ID=3371
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California Center for Population Research (CCPR):

A. "Trends in Educational Assortative Marriage From 1940 to 2003," by Christine R. Schwartz and Robert D. Mare (CCPR-017-05, August 2005, .pdf format, 32p.).

Abstract:

This paper reports trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 in the United States. Analyses of Census and Current Population Survey data show that educational homogamy decreased from 1940 to 1960 but increased from 1960 to 2003. From 1960 to the early-1970s, increases in educational homogamy were generated by decreasing intermarriage among groups of relatively well educated persons. College graduates, in particular, were increasingly likely to marry each other rather than those with less education. Beginning in the early-1970s, however, continued increases in the odds of educational homogamy were generated by decreases in intermarriage at both ends the education distribution. Most striking is the decline in odds that those with very low levels of education marry up. Intermarriage between college graduates and those with "some college" continued to decline but at a more gradual pace. As intermarriage declined at the extremes of the education distribution, intermarriage among those in the middle portion of the distribution increased. These trends, which are similar for a broad cross-section of married couples and for newlyweds, are consistent with the growing economic and cultural divide between those with very low levels of education and those with more education in the U.S.

http://www.ccpr.ucla.edu/asp/ccpr_017_05.asp

B. "Pathways to Educational Homogamy in Marital and Cohabiting Unions," by Christine R. Schwartz (CCPR-016-05, August 2005, .pdf format, 35p.).

Abstract:

This study uses log-linear models and data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) to compare the odds of educational homogamy in marital and cohabiting unions. Differences in the educational resemblance of married and cohabiting couples vary depending on the sample used. Cohabiting couples are less likely to be educationally homogamous than married couples using a sample of prevailing unions. Restricting the sample to newly formed unions, however, eliminates this difference. Furthermore, I find little support for the hypothesis that cohabiting couples who transition to marriage are more homogamous than cohabiting couples who separate, although these results vary by respondent's sex. My results suggest that differences in educational homogamy by union type in prevailing unions are driven by the accumulation of the most homogamous marriages over time rather than differences in sorting into unions or selection out of cohabiting unions into marriage.

http://www.ccpr.ucla.edu/asp/ccpr_016_05.asp
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University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty: "The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement," by Gordon Dahl and Lance Lochner (Discussion Paper 1305-05, August 2005, .pdf format, 39p.).

Abstract:

Understanding the consequences of growing up poor for a child's well-being is an important research question, but one that is difficult to answer due to the potential endogeneity of family income. Past estimates of the effect of family income on child development have often been plagued by omitted variable bias and measurement error. In this paper, we use a fixed effect instrumental variables strategy to estimate the causal effect of income on children's math and reading achievement. Our primary source of identification comes from the large, non-linear changes in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) over the last two decades. The largest of these changes increased family income by as much as 20 percent, or approximately $2,100. Using a panel of over 6,000 children matched to their mothers from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth datasets allows us to address problems associated with unobserved heterogeneity and endogenous transitory income shocks as well as measurement error in income. Our baseline estimates imply that a $1,000 increase in income raises math test scores by 2.1 percent and reading test scores by 3.6 percent of a standard deviation. The results are even stronger when looking at children from disadvantaged families who are affected most by the large changes in the EITC, and are robust to a variety of alternative specifications.

http://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/dps/pdfs/dp130505.pdf
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National Bureau of Economic Research: "Affirmative Action and Its Mythology," by Roland G. Fryer, Jr., Glenn C. Loury (w11464, July 2005, .pdf format, 26p.).

Abstract:

For more than three decades, critics and supporters of affirmative action have fought for the moral high ground ­ through ballot initiatives and lawsuits, in state legislatures, and in varied courts of public opinion. The goal of this paper is to show the clarifying power of economic reasoning to dispel some myths and misconceptions in the racial affirmative action debates. We enumerate seven commonly held (but mistaken) views one often encounters in the folklore about affirmative action (affirmative action may involve goals and timelines, but definitely not quotas, e.g.). Simple economic arguments reveal these seven views to be more myth than fact.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w11464
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research:

A. "Aging: damage accumulation versus increasing mortality rate," by Maxim S. Finkelstein (WP-2005-018, August 2005, .pdf format, 11p.).

Abstract:

If aging is understood as some process of damage accumulation, it does not necessarily lead to increasing mortality rates. Within the framework of a suggested generalization of the Strehler-Mildwan (1960) model, we show that even for models with monotonically increasing degradation, the mortality rate can still decrease. The decline in vitality and functions, as manifestation of aging, is modeled by the monotonically decreasing quality of life function. Using this function, the initial lifetime random variable with ultimately decreasing mortality rate is 'weighted' to result in a new random variable which is already characterized by the increasing rate.

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-018.pdf

B. "On mixture failure rate ordering," by Maxim S. Finkelstein and Veronica Esaulova (WP-2005-019, August 2005, .pdf format, 18p.).

Abstract:

Mixtures of increasing failure rate distributions (IFR) can decrease at least in some intervals of time. Usually this property can be observed asymptotically as time tends to infinity. This is due to the fact that the mixture failure rate is 'bent down' compared with the corresponding unconditional expectation of the baseline failure rate, which was proved previously for some specific cases. We generalize this result and discuss the "weakest populations are dying first" property, which leads to the change in the failure rate shape. We also consider the problem of mixture failure rate ordering for the ordered mixing distributions. Two types of stochastic ordering are analyzed: ordering in the likelihood ratio sense and ordering in variances when the means are equal.

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-019.pdf

C. "Does the socioeconomic mortality gradient interact with age? Evidence from US survey data and Danish register data," by Rasmus Hoffmann (WP-2005-020, August 2005, .pdf format, 41p.).

Abstract:

The aim of our paper is to provide an answer to the questions if and why social differences in health and mortality decrease with age. Most research confirms this decrease but the reasons for it and the role of unobserved heterogeneity are unknown. The data used for our analysis come from the US Health and Retirement Study (n=9376) and from the Danish Demographic Database (Denmark's population above age 58). They offer detailed information about SES and health information. The technique of event-history-analysis is used, and frailty models address mortality selection. A new method is developed to consider systematic difference in the change of average frailty over age between social groups. SES differentials in mortality converge with age in Denmark but not in the US. In both countries, they converge strongly with decreasing health. When controlled for health, the differences are stable across age in both countries. This means that worsening health levels social mortality differences and not increasing age. Controlling for mortality selection removes the converging pattern over age.

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-020.pdf

D. "Economic progress as cancer risk factor - I. Puzzling facts of cancer epidemiology," by Svetlana V. Ukraintseva and Anatoli I. Yashin (WP-2005-021, August 2005, .pdf format, 46p.).

Abstract:

The increase in cancer burden in developed countries refers to three major causes: population aging, an increase in the cancer incidence rate, and an improvement in the survival of cancer patients. Among these reasons, only the increase in the cancer incidence rate is a negative factor that could be really managed to decrease cancer burden; it, thus, urgently needs explanation and action to develop adequate cancer prophylactics. We have conducted a comparative analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates in different countries of the world for different time periods. The typical age-trajectory of overall cancer incidence rate (for both sexes and all cancers combined) is characterized by a peak in early childhood, low risk in youth, increasing risk afterwards, and a leveling-out or even a decline in cancer risk for the oldest old. Patterns of age-specific cancer mortality resemble the incidence rate patterns; however, mortality is commonly lower and its curve shifts towards higher age. This shift could be due to a time lag between the age of cancer diagnosis and death from the disease. Analysis of time and place differences in the cancer incidence rate revealed that the overall cancer risk is higher in more developed regions as compared with less developed ones, and that until recently it increased over time along with economic progress. The proportions of separate cancer sites within the overall cancer morbidity differ between more and less developed regions, and their change over time is also linked to economic development. Surprisingly, cancer incidence and mortality rates exhibit different time trends. This divergence is most probably related to the substantial improvement in the survival of cancer patients observed in the last 50 years in developed countries. This improved survival has decreased cancer mortality but not its incidence, which has increased. This suggests that in developed countries cancer treatment has seen much more substantial progress than cancer prophylaxis, which has hardly seen positive results for the majority of human cancers (with a few exceptions). In our second paper we discuss possible explanations of the link between economic progress and the increase in the overall cancer risk.

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-021.pdf

E. "Economic progress as cancer risk factor - II. Why is overall cancer risk higher in more developed countries?" by Svetlana V. Ukraintseva and Anatoli I. Yashin (WP-2005-022, August 2005, .pdf format, 42p.).

Abstract:

Analysis of data on cancer incidence rates in different countries at different time periods revealed positive association between overall cancer risk and economic progress. Typical explanations of this phenomenon involve improved cancer diagnostics and elevated exposure to carcinogens in industrial countries. Here we provide evidence from human and experimental animal studies suggesting that some other factors associated with high economic development and Western life style may primarily increase the proportion of susceptible to cancer individuals in a population and thus contribute to elevated cancer risks in industrial countries. These factors include (but not limited to): (i) better medical and living conditions that "relax" environmental selection and increase share of individuals prone to chronic inflammation; (ii) several medicines and foods that are not carcinogenic themselves but affect the metabolism of established carcinogens; (iii) nutrition enriched with growth factors; (iv) delayed childbirth. The latter two factors may favor an increase in both cancer incidence rate and longevity in a population. This implies the presence of a trade-off between cancer and aging: factors that postpone aging may simultaneously enhance organism's susceptibility to several cancers.

http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-021.pdf
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World Bank Policy Research Programme:

A. "The contribution of skilled immigration and international graduate students to U.S. innovation," by Gnanaraj Chellaraj, Keith E. Maskus, and Aaditya Mattoo (WPS 3588, May 2005, .pdf format, ASCII text and .pdf format, 35p.).

Abstract:

The impact of international students and skilled immigration in the United States on innovative activity is estimated using a model of idea generation. In the main specification a system of three equations is estimated, where dependent variables are total patent applications, patents awarded to U.S. universities, and patents awarded to other U.S. entities, each scaled by the domestic labor force. Results indicate that both international graduate students and skilled immigrants have a significant and positive impact on future patent applications, as well as on future patents awarded to university and nonuniversity institutions. The central estimates suggest that a 10 percent increase in the number of foreign graduate students would raise patent applications by 4.7 percent, university patent grants by 5.3 percent, and nonuniversity patent grants by 6.7 percent. Thus, reductions in foreign graduate students from visa restrictions could significantly reduce U.S. innovative activity. Increases in skilled immigration also have a positive, but smaller, impact on patenting.

http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000090341_20050515125129

Click on "PDF" or "Text" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

B. "Migration, trade, and foreign investment in Mexico," by Patricio Aroca Gonzalez and William F. Maloney (WPS3601, May 2005, ASCII text and .pdf format, 30p.).

Abstract:

Part of the rationale for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was that it would increase trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, creating jobs and reducing migration to the United States. Since poor data on illegal flows to the United States make direct measurement difficult, Aroca and Maloney instead evaluate the mechanism behind these predictions using data on migration within Mexico where the census data permit careful analysis. They offer the first specifications for migration within Mexico, incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities, and networks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor market variables enter very significantly and as predicted once the authors control for possible credit constraint effects. Greater exposure to FDI and trade deters out-migration with the effects working partly through the labor market. Finally, the authors generate some tentative inferences about the impact on increased FDI on Mexico-U.S. migration. On average, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a 1.5-2 percent fall in migration.

http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000011823_20050512095435

Click on "PDF" or "Text" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

C. "Teacher shocks and student learning : evidence from Zambia," by Jishnu Das, Stefan Dercon, James Habyarimana, and Pramila Krishnan (WPS 3602, May 2005, ASCII text and .pdf format, 38p.).

Abstract:

A large literature examines the link between shocks to households and the educational attainment of children. The authors use new data to estimate the impact of shocks to teachers on student learning in mathematics and English. Using absenteeism in the 30 days preceding the survey as a measure of these shocks they find large impacts: A 5 percent increase in the teacher's absence rate reduces learning by 4 to 8 percent of average gains over the year. This reduction in learning achievement likely reflects both the direct effect of increased absenteeism and the indirect effects of less lesson preparation and lower teaching quality when in class. The authors document that health problems-primarily teachers' own illness and the illnesses of their family members-account for more than 60 percent of teacher absences; not surprising in a country struggling with an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The relationship between shocks to teachers and student learning suggests that households are unable to substitute adequately for teaching inputs. Excess teaching capacity that allows for the greater use of substitute teachers could lead to larger gains in student learning.

http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000011823_20050512103756

Click on "PDF" or "Text" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.
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Population Council: "Trends in the timing of first marriage among men and women in the developing world." by Barbara S. Mensch, Susheela Singh, and John B. Casterline (Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 202, pdf format, 54p.).

Abstract:

The timing of first union merits investigation not only because of the close temporal link between marriage and the onset of childbearing, but also because the age when men and women marry has implications for the organization of family life and for gender relations within society. This paper begins by reviewing the contributions of various social science disciplines to an understanding of the timing of marriage. Using current status data from 73 countries provided by the United Nations Population Division and retrospective data from 52 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1990 and 2001, we then examine recent trends in the timing of first marriage or union for men and women in the developing world. With the exception of South America for both sexes and South and Southeast Asia for men, substantial declines have occurred in the proportion of young men and women who are married. Given the differentials in the timing of marriage by educational attainment and residence, we assess whether the decline in the proportion of young people who are married is related to increases in schooling and urbanization. Expansion of schooling for women has had some impact, but a considerable portion of the reduction in early marriage is not explained by changes in levels of education. We consider other factors that might account for the increase in age at marriage. Finally, we review what is known about the consequences of changing age at marriage with a particular focus on risk of HIV infection.

http://www.popcouncil.org/pdfs/wp/202.pdf
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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA): "Birth Order Matters: The Effect of Family Size and Birth Order on Educational Attainment," by by Alison L. Booth and Hiau Joo Kee (Discussion Paper 1714, August 2005, .pdf format, 34p.).

Abstract:

We use unique retrospective family background data from the 2003 British Household Panel Survey to explore the degree to which family size and birth order affect a child's subsequent educational attainment. Theory suggests a trade off between child quantity and 'quality'. Family size might adversely affect the production of child quality within a family. A number of arguments also suggest that siblings are unlikely to receive equal shares of the resources devoted by parents to their children's education. We construct a composite birth order index that effectively purges family size from birth order and use this to test if siblings are assigned equal shares in the family's educational resources. We find that they are not, and that the shares are decreasing with birth order. Controlling for parental family income, parental age at birth and family level attributes, we find that children from larger families have lower levels of education and that there is in addition a separate negative birth order effect. In contrast to Black, Devereux and Kelvanes (2005), the family size effect does not vanish once we control for birth order. Our findings are robust to a number of specification checks.

ftp://ftp.iza.org/dps/dp1713.pdf

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

http://www.ingenta.com/

B. click on "advanced search"
C. Type in your publication name and click "Exact title" radio button
D. Under "Show", click the "fax/ariel" radio button.
E. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Journal of Biosocial Science (vol. 37 no. 4, 2005)
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Other Journals:

Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal (Vol. 34, No. 1, September 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

http://fcs.sagepub.com/content/vol34/issue1/?etoc

Journal of Family Issues (Vol. 26, No. 6, September 2005)

http://jfi.sagepub.com/archive/

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CONFERENCES/CALLS FOR PAPERS:

National Center for Education Statistics

In an effort to encourage research on American Indian/Alaska Native students, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, will conduct a 4-day advanced studies seminar on the use of the NCES databases for education research and policy analysis on American Indian/Alaska Native students. This seminar, sponsored by the Office of Indian Education (OIE), will focus primarily on the NAEP database containing both achievement scores for 4th, 8th, and 12th graders from public and non-public schools in various subject areas, and background information on the students who were assessed and their learning environment. In addition, the seminar will provide an overview of other NCES databases that contain information on American Indian/Alaska Native students.

http://nces.ed.gov/conferences/confinfo.asp?confid=165

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DATA:

Census Bureau: "July 1, 2004, State and County Characteristics Population Estimates" (August 2005, ASCII text, comma separated value [.csv] or Microsoft Excel format, with documentation in ASCII text format).

http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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Urban Institute Report: "2002 NSAF (National Survey of America's Families) Data Editing and Imputation," by Timothy Triplett (NSAF Methodology Series No. 10, July 2005, .pdf format, 9p.).

http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=900829

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WEBSITES OF INTEREST:

kaiserEDU.org Update: kaiserEDU.org, originally discussed in the CDERR issue No. 26 (Apr. 5, 2004--http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/library/cderr/cderr26.htm#websites) has recently added a module on "Race, Ethnicity, and Health Care: The Basics" to its reference collection.

http://kaiseredu.org/topics_reflib.asp?id=329&parentid=67&rID=1

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Thanks,

Charlie

***************************************************

Charlie Fiss
Information Manager
Center for Demography and Ecology and
Center for Demography of Health and Aging
Rm. 4470A Social Science Bldg
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393
Phone: (608) 265-9240
Fax: (608) 262-8400
Email: fiss@ssc.wisc.edu

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