Current Demographic Research Report #6, November 10, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.disc.wisc.edu/reports/CDERR/subscribe.html

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Index to this issue:

REPORTS, ARTICLES, PERIODICALS, MONOGRAPHS

Census Bureau Guide
National Center for Health Statistics Reports
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodicals
Department of Housing and Urban Development Reports
US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports
_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Article
Institute of Medicine Monograph
State Department Report
UNESCO Report
_Demographic Research_ Article
Kaiser Family Foundation Report
Urban Institute Reports
Rand Health/Nuffield Trust Report
Johns Hopkins Pop Reporter Periodical

WORKING PAPERS

University of Michigan Population Studies Center
Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program
Princeton University Office of Population Research
Carolina Population Center MEASURE Evaluation
University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty
Population Council
Yale University Economic Growth Center
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

TABLES OF CONTENTS

Ingenta
Other Journals

CONFERENCES

National Institutes of Health

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Minnesota Population Center
Library of Congress

DATA

Wisconsin Longitudinal Study
United Nations Demographic Measurement Software
National Center for Education Statistics
Panel Study of Income Dynamics Errata

WEBSITES

Allen Guttmacher Institute Abortion Resources

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REPORTS, ARTICLES, PERIODICALS, MONOGRAPHS

Census Bureau Guide:

Census 2000 Guide: "Guide to Data on the Older Population in Census 2000 Summary Files 1-4, Revised July 2003" (Census Bureau Age and Special Populations Branch, Population Division). "This document contains descriptions of all data tables (not imputation tables) for Census 2000 Summary Files 1, 2, 3, and 4, which contain data on the older population. Many of the tables provide data for people 60 years and over by age groups, and many of these tables also have data for younger age groups. Other select tables provide median age and data for the nursing home population."

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/c2kagesf1-4.html
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National Center for Health Statistics Reports:

A. "Revised Pregnancy Rates, 1990-97, and New Rates for 1998-99: United States," by Stephanie J.Ventura, Joyce C.Abma, William D.Mosher,and Stanley Henshaw (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 52, No. 7, October 2003, .pdf format, 15p.). The report is linked to from a NCHS news release: "U.S. Pregnancy Rate Down from Peak; Births and Abortions on the Decline" (Oct. 31, 2003).

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/releases/03facts/pregbirths.htm

Click on "View/download PDF" for full text.

B. "Deaths: Leading Causes for 2001," by Robert N. Anderson and Betty L. Smith (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 52, No. 9, November 2003, .pdf format, 88p.).

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr52/nvsr52_09.pdf
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National Center for Education Statistics Report: "Public High School Dropouts and Completers from the Common Core of Data: School Year 2000-01," by Beth Young (NCES 2004310, November 2003, .pdf format, 22p.). Note: Links to previous reports are available at the site.

Abstract:

This report presents state-level public high school dropout and completion rates from the Common Core of Data. The report uses an annual event dropout rate and a 4-year high school completion rate and presents data for the 2000-01 school year.

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2004310
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Bureau of Justice Statistics Report: "Capital Punishment 2002," by Thomas P. Bonczar and Tracy L. Snell (NCJ 201848, November 2003, ASCII text and .pdf format, 17p. with .zip compressed spreadsheets).

Abstract:

Presents characteristics of persons under sentence of death on December 31, 2002, and of persons executed in 2002. Preliminary data on executions by States during 2003 are included, and the report summarizes the movement of prisoners into and out of death sentence status during 2002. Numerical tables present data on offenders' sex, race, Hispanic origin, education, marital status, age at time of arrest for capital offense, legal status at time of capital offense, methods of execution, trends, and time between imposition of death sentence and execution. Historical tables present executions since 1930 and sentencing since 1973.

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cp02.htm
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodicals:

A. "Compensation and Working Conditions Online" (October 2003). See the articles for Oct. 29, 2003.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/home.htm

B. _Monthly Labor Review_ (Vol. 126, No. 8, August 2003, .pdf format).

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _MLR_ is released, this one, along with all others back to 1988, will be available at:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/archive.htm
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Department of Housing and Urban Development Reports:

A. "Moving to Opportunity: Interim Impacts Evaluation," by Larry Orr, Judith D. Feins, Robin Jacob, Eric Beercroft, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Lawrence F. Katz, Jeffrey B. Liebman, and Jeffrey R. King (September 2003, .pdf format, 341p.). "The _Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration Interim Impacts Evaluation_ provides insights into what benefits can be achieved by improving the neighborhoods of poor families. The Moving to Opportunity program provided thousands of poor adults and children an opportunity to use HUD vouchers to move out of public housing in high poverty neighborhoods to lower poverty neighborhoods. Using rigorous scientific methods, this study looks at the impact these moves have had on housing, health, employment, education, mobility, welfare receipt, and delinquency. The results presented in this report show the impacts of moving to lower poverty approximately 5-years after the move.

http://www.huduser.org/publications/fairhsg/mtoFinal.html

B. "Components of Inventory Change (CINCH) reports". The latest report,"Components of Inventory Change: 1985-1995 (September 2003, .pdf format, 275p.) is available electronically. Also available at the site are individual biennial reports from 1985 to 1995. "The Components of Inventory Change (CINCH) report measures changes in the characteristics of the housing stock of the United States. Using data collected from the national American Housing Survey (AHS), conducted every two years, the characteristics of individual housing units are compared across time."

http://www.huduser.org/Datasets/cinch.html
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US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports:

A. "Household Food Security in the United States, 2002," by Mark Nord, Margaret Andrews, and Steven Carlson (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report No. FANRR35, October 2003, .pdf format, 58p.).

Abstract:

Eighty-nine percent of American households were food secure throughout the entire year 2002, meaning that they had access, at all times, to enough food for an active, healthy life for all household members. The remaining households were food insecure at least some time during that year. The prevalence of food insecurity rose from 10.7 percent in 2001 to 11.1 percent in 2002, and the prevalence of food insecurity with hunger rose from 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent. This report, based on data from the December 2002 food security survey, provides statistics on the food security of U.S. households, as well as on how much they spent for food and the extent to which food-insecure households participated in Federal and community food assistance programs.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fanrr35/

B. "Issues in Food Assistance--The Emergency Food Assistance System: Findings from the Client Survey," by Ronette Briefel, Jonathan Jacobson, and Laura Tiehen (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report No. FANRR26-10, September 2003, .pdf format, 3p.).

Abstract:

Food pantries and emergency kitchens play an important role in feeding America's low-income and needy populations. These organizations are part of the Emergency Food Assistance System (EFAS), a network run largely by private organizations with some Federal support. This issues brief summarizes findings from a survey of EFAS customers. The survey found that, during a typical month in 2001, food pantries served about 12.5 million people, and emergency kitchens served about 1.1 million people. The majority of EFAS households participate in a Federal food assistance program, including two-thirds of food-pantry clients and 45 percent of emergency-kitchen clients. However, a substantial number of EFAS households do not receive food stamps, though they appear to be eligible for them.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fanrr26/fanrr26-10/
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_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Article: "Tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Drug Use Among High School Students in Bureau of Indian Affairs--Funded Schools --- United States, 2001" (US Centers for Disease Control, _MMWR_ Vol. 52, No. 44, Nov. 7, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1070-1072).

HTML:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5244a3.htm

.pdf:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5244.pdf
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Institute of Medicine Monograph: _Improving Birth Outcomes: Meeting the Challenge in the Developing World_, edited by Judith R. Bale, Barbara J. Stoll, and Adetokunbo O. Lucas (National Academies Press, 2003, OpenBook browsable and searchable format, 372p.). Note: Purchasing information is available at the site.

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10841.html
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State Department Report: "Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2002" (Government Printing Office S/N 052-070-07396-9, CD-ROM, $21.00. For more information see:

http://bookstore.gpo.gov/cdrom/cdrom321.html
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United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Report: "Gender and Education for All: The Leap to Equality" (Education for All [EFA] Global Monitoring Report 2003/4, 2003, .pdf format, 274p.)

http://www.unesco.org/education/efa_report/
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_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is "a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Seasonal mortality in Denmark: the role of sex and age," by Roland Rau and Gabriele Doblhammer (Vol. 9, Article 9, November 2003, .pdf format, p. 198-222).

Abstract:

Our paper addresses two questions on seasonal mortality: How do women and men differ with respect to seasonal fluctuations in mortality? How does seasonality in death change with age? The analysis is based on a sample of all Danes aged 50 and older on 1 April 1968 being followed for 30 years. In contrast to previous studies we found remarkable differences between women and men in their seasonal mortality patterns. Men showed larger seasonal fluctuations than women indicating a higher susceptibility to environmental stressful periods. We found that seasonality increases with age. However, we discovered again a sex difference: women's seasonality starts increasing at later ages than men's.

http://www.demographic-research.org

Click on "Enter".
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Kaiser Family Foundation Report: "Zero to Six: Electronic Media in the Lives of Infants, Toddlers and Preschoolers," by Victoria J. Rideout, Elizabeth A. Vandewater, and Ellen A. Wartella (Fall 2003, .pdf format, 35p.).

Abstract:

Recent years have seen an explosion in electronic media marketed directly at the very youngest children in our society, yet very little is known about how these changes have played out in young people's lives. In order to help understand the implications, the Foundation conducted a national study of more than 1,000 parents of children ages six months through six years.

http://www.kff.org/content/2003/20031028/
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Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Safety Net or Tangled Web? An Overview of Programs and Services for Adults with Disabilities," by David Wittenburg and Melissa Favreault (Assessing the New Federalism Occasional Paper No. 68, November 2003, .pdf format, 31p.).

http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=310884

B. "Children of Immigrants Show Slight Reductions in Poverty, Hardship," by Randolph Capps, Michael E. Fix, and Jane Reardon-Anderson (Snapshots of America's Families III, No. 13, November 2003, HTML and.pdf format, 2p.).

http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=310887
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Rand Health/Nuffield Trust Report: "Measuring General Practice: A Demonstration Project to Develop and Test a Set of Primary Care Clinical Quality Indicators," by Martin N. Marshall, Martin O. Roland, Stephen M. Campbell, Sue Kirk, David Reeves, Robert Brook, Elizabeth A. McGlynn, and Paul G. Shekelle (2003, .pdf format, 68p.).

Abstract:

This project has resulted in the most comprehensive set of clinical indicators that have ever been developed for use in UK general practice. In addition, it has started to field test these indicators so that primary care practitioners and managers can understand how feasible the indicators are to use and their scientific properties. However, and as with most leading-edge projects, we are left with some important questions about the use of indicators and the role of measurement in general practice unanswered. The final section outlines the key issues that need to be addressed to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks of introducing greater measurement to British general practice.

http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1725/
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Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 45, Nov. 10, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

http://www.infoforhealth.org/popreporter/

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WORKING PAPERS:

University of Michigan Population Studies Center: "Implications of Intermittent Employment for Child Labor Estimates," by Deborah Levison, Jasper Hoek, David Lam, and Suzanne Duryea (PSC Research Report 03-539, October 2003, .pdf format, 34p.).

Abstract:

This paper challenges the common international representation of working children as steady job-holders. We take advantage of panel data (the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego) from Brazil to follow the employment patterns of large numbers of urban children ages 10-16 during 4 months in their lives. Different waves of the panel cover most of the 1980s and 1990s and include thousands of children, making possible generalizations about large-scale patterns. We document a substantial decline in child employment in the 1990s. An analysis of transition rates in and out of employment for young workers shows relatively high volatility in urban employment, with both higher exit rates and lower entry rates responsible for the decline in child employment. Due to this volatility, however, the proportion of urban Brazilian children ever-working in the labor force is substantially higher than the fraction who are workers at any one point in time; we find that movements in and out of employment are "normal" rather than exceptional. An intermittency multiplier summarizes the difference between employment rates in one reference week vs. four reference weeks over a 4-month period. We conclude that intermittent employment is a crucial characteristic of child labor which must be recognized in order to adequately capture levels of child employment and identify child workers.

http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/abs.shtml?ID=34473

Click on PDF icon for full text.
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Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program: "Neighborhood and Family Effects on Children's Health in Los Angeles," by Narayan Sastry and Anne R. Pebley DRU-2400/11-LAFANS, WP 03-25, April 2003, .pdf format, 21p.).

http://www.rand.org/labor/DRU/DRU2400.11.pdf
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Princeton University Office of Population Research: "Outlier Detection and Editing Procedures for Continuous Multivariate Data," by Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar and J.L. Schafer (WP 2003-07, September 2003, .pdf format, 23p.).

Abstract:

We present a semi-automatic method of outlier detection for continuous, multivariate survey data. In large datasets, outliers may be difficult to find using informal inspection and graphical displays, particularly when there are missing values. Our method relies on an explicit probability model for the data. The raw data with outliers is described by a contaminated multivariate normal distribution, and an EM algorithm is applied to obtain robust estimates of the means and covariances. Mahalanobis distances are computed to identify potential outliers. The procedure is implemented in a software product which detects outliers and suggests edits to remove offending values. We apply the algorithm to body-measurement data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This method works quite generally for continuous survey data, and is particularly useful when inter-variable correlations are strong.

http://opr.princeton.edu/papers/opr0307.pdf
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Carolina Population Center Monitoring and Evaluation to Assess the Use Results (MEASURE) Evaluation:

A. "Contrasting Primary School Outcomes of Paternal and Maternal Orphans in Manicaland, Zimbabwe: HIV/AIDS and Weaknesses in the Extended Family System," by Constance Nyamukapa and Simon Gregson (WP-03-71, October 2003, .pdf format, 46p.).

Abstract:

Fewer orphans are enrolled in school than other children but the extent of disadvantage-after allowing for their older average age- is small in most countries. Cross-country analyses show variation in the size and strength of associations between orphanhood and education according to the form of parental loss experienced. However, maternal death is usually more detrimental to children's education chances than paternal death and double orphans are typically the least likely to be in school. These differences are not fully accounted for by differences in household socio-economic circumstances. In a case study in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, we found that children who had lost their mothers at an early age were less likely to have completed primary school than other children but that the reverse was true for paternal orphans. These results remained valid even after controlling for other factors that influence primary school completion, including child's sex and age, economic status of household, and characteristics of household head. In an in-depth study of the extended family system in Manicaland, we identified factors that support the education of paternal orphans and reduce the school chances of maternal orphans. The former include the increased role and greater motivation of surviving mothers and more extensive involvement of relatives. The latter include low priority given by surviving fathers and step-mothers to the child's education and more frequent residence with more distant relatives. The extended family and Government and NGO programmes are less likely to provide support when the natural father is still alive. The extended family system provides the most conducive and sustainable context for orphans upbringing but is becoming seriously fragmented. Care is needed to ensure that initiatives intended to assist orphans support and build upon rather than undermine extended family arrangements.

http://www.cpc.unc.edu/measure/publications/?type=wp&code=71

B. "Understanding Perceptions of HIV Risk among Adolescents in KwaZulu-Natal," by Kate Macintyre, Naomi Rutenberg, Lisanne Brown, and Ali Karim (WP-03-72, October 2003, .pdf format, 29p.).

Abstract:

Risk perception has been theorized to be an important antecedent for adopting protective behavior. It is a key construct of research applying the Health Belief Model and other behavior change models. In relation to HIV, risk perception is an indicator of perceived susceptibility to infection, a measure of ones understanding of AIDS transmission as well as willingness to consider behavioral changes. However, there remains much we do not know about what drives risk perception, especially among youth. This study identifies factors that influence the calculation of HIV risk perception among a group of adolescents in South Africa. Data, collected in 1999 from 2,716 adolescents aged 14-22, are used to explore factors predicting risk perception. Logistic regression models suggest connectedness to parents and community for males and females, self-efficacy to use a condom among males and living in a household with a chronically ill member for females are associated with HIV risk perception. We conclude that a greater understanding of the connection of adolescents to their communities and adults in their lives is needed, and ways in which programs can alter the environments in which adolescents form opinions, make choices, and act should be incorporated into program design.

http://www.cpc.unc.edu/measure/publications/?type=wp&code=72

C: "The Effects of Education and Family Planning Programs on Fertility in Indonesia," by Gustavo Angeles, David K. Guilkey, and Thomas A. Mroz (WP-03-73, October 2003, .pdf format, 70p.).

Abstract:

Numerous studies indicate that female education is a major determinant of completed family size and the length of the interval between births. The estimated reductions of fertility rates due to increases in education typically dwarf the effects of most other variables, including variables included to measure the availability of family planning programs. Based on such estimates, some analysts have concluded that programs to increase womens educational attainments might be the most effective way to stimulate reductions in fertility in developing countries. There are, however, two serious deficiencies in the research relating educational attainment to fertility that could give rise to invalid inferences about the causal impacts of education. First, many public programs, including health and family planning programs, may influence a woman's decisions about education, and these indirect programmatic effects might be large. Second, nearly all existing studies of the impacts of education on fertility assume that a woman's educational attainment is unrelated to other unobserved determinants of these outcomes. Education could be serving as a proxy for such unobservable determinants as ability, motivation, and parental background, as these factors most likely are important determinants of a woman's educational attainment. The estimated impact of education on fertility most likely includes the impacts of these unobserved factors as well as the true education effect. In our empirical work, we use the 1993 Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). We compare the estimated impacts of education on fertility from a simple model that assumes the exogeneity of education and an unobserved factor model that allows for endogeneity of schooling. Our empirical results provide key evidence that the importance of female education as means of reducing fertility would be overstated for Indonesia if one uses a naive empirical model that does not control for endogeneity due to the self-selection of a woman's educational status.

http://www.cpc.unc.edu/measure/publications/?type=wp&code=73
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University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty: "Transitions in Welfare Participation and Female Headship," by John M. Fitzgerald and David C. Ribar (IRP Discussion Paper DP 1275-03, November 2003, .pdf format, 30p.).

Abstract:

This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that mothers will enter welfare. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with longer spells of headship, nonheadship, and welfare participation and nonparticipation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/pubs/dp127503.pdf
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Population Council: "Determinants of old-age mortality in Taiwan," by Linda G. Martin and Hui-Sheng Lin (WP No. 81, 2003, .pdf format, 28p.).

Abstract:

Relationships among socio-demographic characteristics, general assessments of health, and old-age mortality are well established in developed countries. There is also an increasing focus on the connection between early-life experiences and late-life health. This paper tests these and other associations using representative survey data from Taiwan on the population aged 60 and older in 1989, 1993, and 1996 that have been linked to data on deaths between 1989 and 1999 from a national death registry. The study also explores the possible influence of Taiwan's Universal Health Insurance Program, instituted in 1995, and whether or not the survival of some groups of older people may have been differentially enhanced. Mortality is modeled using Gompertz regression. Multiple survey waves are employed to construct time-varying covariates. Some results verify findings of past studies; others are new. Effects of education are attenuated after the introduction of some health indicators. Functional and global assessments of health have stronger associations with mortality than do self-reports of health behaviors or particular chronic conditions such as diabetes. Mainlanders have higher survival than others. The survival of older adults with the greatest number and severity of functional limitations improved over the 1990s, suggesting a possible beneficial influence of the insurance program.

http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/181.html

Click on "Download the full Working Paper in PDF format" for full text.
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Yale University Economic Growth Center:

A. "Fertility, Child Work and Schooling Consequences of Family Planning Programs: Evidence from an Experiment in Rural Bangladesh," by Nistha Sinha (Working Paper No. 867, July 2003, .pdf format, 51p.).

Abstract:

Despite the attractiveness of experiments from the perspective of program evaluation, there have been very few program experiments in the area of family planning. This paper evaluates an ongoing family planning program experiment in rural Bangladesh. The paper estimates the effect of mothers program exposure on fertility and children's time allocation. The results show that while the program was effective in reducing fertility, it had no significant impact on children's school enrollment. However, the program appears to have significantly raised boys participation in the labor force.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp867.pdf

B. "Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition," by John C.Brown and Timothy W. Guinnane (Working Paper No. 869, September 2003, .pdf format, 35p.).

Abstract:

The Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (or European Fertility Project, hereafter EFP) was carried out at Princeton University's Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project's summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. The statement stresses instead a process of innovation and diffusion. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises that purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent papers on Germany for this period have used similar data and methods to draw different conclusions. These findings echo those of researchers working in other contexts, who increasingly find that economic and social factors play a strong role in fertility. We show that one reason for the new findings is some general statistical problems in the Princeton methodology. These are reason to temper acceptance of the Princeton project's larger message.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp869.pdf

C. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," by Patrick Bayer, Fernando Ferreira, and Robert McMillan (Working Paper No. 872, November 2003, .pdf format, 68p.).

Abstract:

This paper sets out a framework for estimating household preferences over a broad range of housing and neighborhood characteristics, some of which are determined by the way that households sort in the housing market. This framework brings together the treatment of heterogeneity and selection that has been the focus of the traditional discrete choice literature with a clear strategy for dealing with the correlation of unobserved neighborhood quality with both school quality and neighborhood sociodemographics. We estimate the model using rich data on a large metropolitan area, drawn from a restricted version of the Census. The estimates indicate that, on average, households are willing to pay an additional one percent in house prices - substantially lower than in prior work - when the average performance of the local school is increased by 5 percent. There is also evidence of considerable preference heterogeneity. We also show that the full capitalization of school quality into housing prices is typically 70-75 percent greater than the direct effect as the result of a social multiplier, neglected in the prior literature, whereby increases in school quality also raises prices by attracting households with more education and income to the corresponding neighborhood.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp872.pdf
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) [Laxenburg, Austria]:

A. "Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts," by Jiang Leiwen and Brian C. O'Neill (Interim Report IR-03-050, October 2003, .pdf and PostScript format, 16p.).

Abstract:

Household projections are key components of analyses of several issues of social concern, including the welfare of the elderly, housing, and environmentally significant consumption patterns. Researchers or policy makers that use such projections need appropriate representations of uncertainty in order to inform their analyses. However, the weaknesses of the traditional approach of providing alternative variants to single "best guess" projection are magnified in household projections, which have many output variables of interest, and many input variables beyond fertility, mortality, and migration. We review current methods of household projections and the potential for using them to produce probabilistic projections, which would address many of these weaknesses. We then propose a new framework for a household projection method of intermediate complexity that we believe is a good candidate for providing a basis for further development of probabilistic household projections. An extension of the traditional headship rate approach, this method is based on modeling changes in headship rates decomposed by household size as a function of variables describing demographic events such as parity specific fertility, union formation and dissolution, and leaving home. It has moderate data requirements, manageable complexity, allows for direct specification of demographic events, and produces output that includes the most important household characteristics for many applications. An illustration of how such a model might be constructed, using data on the U.S. and China over the past several decades, demonstrates the viability of the approach.

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR03050

B. "Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting," by Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Brian C. O'Neill, and Wolfgang Lutz (Interim Report IR-03-052, October 2003, .pdf and PostScript format, 13p.).

Abstract:

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers: it allows them to answer "what if" type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call "future jump-off date forecasts". Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR03052

For each paper, click on PDF or PS icon for .pdf or PostScript full text.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

http://www.ingenta.com/

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Economic Development and Cultural Change (Vol. 51, No. 4, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

International Migration (Vol. 41, No. 4, 2003).

Journal of Biosocial Science (Vol. 35, No. 4, 2003).

Journal of Health and Social Behavior (Vol. 44, No. 3, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Journal of Public Health Policy (Vol. 24, No. 2, 2003).

Social Science and Medicine (Vol. 57, No. 12, 2003).
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Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 158, No. 10, Nov. 15, 2003).

http://aje.oupjournals.org/content/vol158/issue10/index.shtml?etoc

American Journal of Public Health (Vol. 93, No. 11, November 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

http://www.ajph.org/content/vol93/issue11/index.shtml

Journal of Health Economics (Vol. 22, No. 6, November 2003).

http://www.elsevier.com/homepage/sae/econworld/econbase/jhe/frame.htm

Click on "ScienceDirect Full Text & Abstracts".

Journal of Marriage and the Family (Vol. 65, No. 4, November 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

http://ncfr.allenpress.com/ncfronline/?request=get-toc&issn=0022-2445&volume=065&issue=04

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CONFERENCES

National Institutes of Health: "Summer Institute on Design and Conduct of Randomized Clinical Trials Involving Behavioral Interventions," to be held Jul. 11-23, 2004, in Airlie, Virginia. For more information, including registration information, see:

http://obssr.od.nih.gov/Conf_Wkshp/rct/RCT_Info.htm

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EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Minnesota Population Center: "The Minnesota Population Center is recruiting graduate research assistants and postdoctoral research associates to help us with some exciting new initiatives related to the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (http://ipums.org). Graduate research assistants must enroll in a relevant graduate program at the University, and deadlines for those programs are approaching rapidly. Postdocs may apply at any time, and we will continue reviewing applications until the positions are filled. Appointments can begin any time in 2004."

Graduate student positions:

http://www.pop.umn.edu/jobs4grads.html

Postdoctoral positions:

http://www.pop.umn.edu/jobs4research.html
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Library of Congress: Specialist in Demography, GS-0101-15. For more information see:

http://jsearch.usajobs.opm.gov/getjob.asp?jobid=19754280

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DATA:

Wisconsin Longitudinal Study: The WLS offers variable description cross reference tables for variables for all waves from 1957 to 1993-94.

http://dpls.dacc.wisc.edu/WLS/cross_reference_tables/CRT_frameset.htm
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United Nations Demographic Measurement Software: "The United Nations Population Division is pleased to announce the release of version 4.0 of MORTPAK, the United Nations software package for demographic measurement. Widely used by demographers throughout the world in previous DOS versions, MORTPAK v. 4.0 now takes advantage of a Windows user interface. It comprises 17 applications in the areas of: population projection; life-table and stable-population construction; graduation of mortality data; indirect mortality estimation; indirect fertility estimation; other indirect procedures for evaluating age distributions and the completeness of censuses. The CD-ROM is available for sale for US$ 300. For more information (.pdf format, 4p.) see:

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/mortpak/MORTPAKwebpage.pdf
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National Center for Education Statistics: "National Household Education Surveys Program of 2001: Data Files and Electronic Codebook" (NCES 2003078, October 2003, .zip compressed ASCII format, with SAS and SPSS setup files, and Stata dictionary and do files). Documentation is available separately (.pdf format).

Abstract:

The National Household Education Surveys Program (NHES) was comprised of three surveys in 2001 -- the Adult Education and Lifelong Learning Survey (AELL-NHES:2001), the Before- and After-School Programs and Activities Survey (ASPA-NHES:2001) and the Early Childhood Program Participation Survey (ECPP-NHES:2001). The AELL-NHES:2001 collected data regarding adult participation in basic skills courses, English as a Second Language (ESL) courses, credential (degree or diploma) programs, apprenticeships, work-related courses and informal learning activities, and personal development/interest courses. The ASPA-NHES:2001 collected information from parents of children in Kindergarten through 8th grade about non-parental care and supervised programs and activities their children participated in before and after school during the school year. The ECPP-NHES:2001 surveyed parents of children from birth through age 6 (but not yet in kindergarten) about their children's participation in nonparental care arrangements (relative, nonrelative, and center-based care), along with additional topics such as children's home activities and their emerging literacy and numeracy. The data, data documentation, and software to help search through and convert the data into SPSS, SAS, or STATA files are available on CD. The data files and syntax needed to set up the data files up in SPSS, SAS, or STATA can also be downloaded directly from this web site. Data documentation for the data sets are also available on-line on the NCES web site. The documentation comes in a four-volume set. Volume I provides information common to all three of the NHES:2001 surveys and should be referenced before using any of the data files. Volume II provides information specific to ECPP-NHES:2001, volume III provides information specific to ASPA-NHES:2001, and volume IV provides information specific to AELL-NHES:2001. The NCES publication numbers for the four volumes are: volume I -- NCES 2003079, volume II -- NCES 2003080, volume III -- NCES 2003081, and volume IV -- NCES2003082.

Data:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2003078

Documentation - Vol. I:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2003079

Vol. 2:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2003080

Vol. 3:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2003081

Vol. 4:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2003082
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Panel Study of Income Dynamics Errata: The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research Panel Study of Income Dynamics has announced the following errata to its 1996 PSID core family data: "Six cases were invalidated". For more information see:

http://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/Guide/DataNewsDet.aspx?&ID=34

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WEB SITES:

Allen Guttmacher Institute Abortion Resources: As an aid to analysis of the recently signed "Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003," AGI provides this webpage, with several articles and factsheets (HTML,.pdf., and/or Microsoft PowerPoint format).

http://www.guttmacher.org/sections/abortion.html

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706
608-262-9827
jsolock@ssc.wisc.edu